By Lynn Vavreck
The economic climate is so strong in opting for the result of U.S. presidential elections that political scientists can expect winners and losers with notable accuracy lengthy ahead of the campaigns commence. but when it truly is real that "it's the financial system, Stupid," why do incumbents in reliable economies occasionally lose? the explanation, Lynn Vavreck argues, is that what issues isn't just the country of the economic climate yet how applicants react to it. by means of demonstrating extra accurately than ever sooner than how applicants and their campaigns impact the commercial vote, The Message concerns presents a strong new method of realizing earlier elections--and predicting destiny ones.Vavreck examines the previous sixty years of presidential elections and gives a brand new thought of campaigns that explains why electoral victory calls for greater than easily being the candidate favorite through winning fiscal stipulations. utilizing facts from presidential elections considering 1952, she unearths why, while, and the way crusade messages make a difference--and once they can outweigh monetary predictors of election outcomes.The Message issues does greater than express why applicants favourite through the financial system needs to construct their campaigns round financial messages. Vavreck's idea additionally explains why applicants deprived by means of the economic climate needs to try and concentration their elections on noneconomic matters that meet exacting criteria--and why this can be so difficult to do.
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Extra info for The Message Matters: The Economy and Presidential Campaigns
The diﬃculty for political science, however, lies in the competitive, cumulative, and contemporaneous nature of campaigns. It is impossible to isolate the cause-and-eﬀect pattern of one campaign event or one campaign decision, because of the highly interactive nature of the campaign environment. Furthermore, we cannot suspend the passage of time, which itself may cause changes in voters’ attitudes and behavior that have nothing to do with things the candidates are actually doing during the campaign.
Any sophisticated and systematic analysis of campaigns and their eﬀects must deal with these questions before moving on to assess whether the process is in need of change. Many have argued that investigating the eﬀects of campaigns is so complex as to be nearly impossible. Campaigns, because of their dynamic, contemporaneous, competitive, and cumulative nature take place in a research environment that is diﬃcult to control. My own view is slightly more optimistic. If political scientists can theorize about voting behavior then we can theorize about campaign behavior and eﬀects.
Fiorina argued in Retrospective Voting in American National Elections that even the least interested and informed voters have one solid piece of data on which to base their vote: they know what their own lives were like during the previous administration’s tenure in oﬃce. 5 Gelman and King (1993) gave retrospective voting on the economy a twist by suggesting that people might not be perfectly informed about such things as the state of the nation’s economy and that campaigns could go a long way toward actually informing people about such conditions (people certainly were well enough informed about their own economic condition).
The Message Matters: The Economy and Presidential Campaigns by Lynn Vavreck