Read e-book online The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2nd PDF

By Nassim Nicholas Taleb

ISBN-10: 0679604189

ISBN-13: 9780679604181

The Black Swan is a standalone e-book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto sequence, an research of opacity, good fortune, uncertainty, chance, human blunders, chance, and decision-making in a global we don't comprehend. the opposite books within the sequence are Fooled through Randomness, Antifragile, and The mattress of Procrustes.

A black swan is a hugely unbelievable occasion with 3 crucial features: it really is unpredictable; it includes a big influence; and, after the very fact, we concoct an evidence that makes it seem much less random, and extra predictable, than it was once. The superb good fortune of Google used to be a black swan; so used to be Sept. 11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie nearly every little thing approximately our global, from the increase of religions to occasions in our personal own lives.

Why will we no longer recognize the phenomenon of black swans until eventually when they take place? a part of the reply, in response to Taleb, is that people are hardwired to benefit specifics once they could be all in favour of generalities. We pay attention to issues we already be aware of and time and time back fail to take into account what we don't be aware of. we're, for that reason, not able to really estimate possibilities, too liable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and never open adequate to lucrative those that can think the "impossible."

For years, Taleb has studied how we idiot ourselves into considering we all know greater than we really do. We limit our considering to the inappropriate and inconsequential, whereas huge occasions proceed to shock us and form our international. during this revelatory ebook, Taleb explains every little thing we all know approximately what we don't understand, and this moment variation incorporates a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which bargains instruments to navigate and make the most a Black Swan world.

Elegant, startling, and common in its functions, The Black Swan will switch how you examine the area. Taleb is a drastically enjoyable author, with wit, irreverence, and weird tales to inform. He has a polymathic command of topics starting from cognitive technology to company to likelihood concept. The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan.

Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb

"The so much prophetic voice of all."--GQ

Praise for The Black Swan

"[A e-book] that altered glossy thinking."--The Times (London)

"A masterpiece."--Chris Anderson, editor in leader of Wired, author of The lengthy Tail

"Idiosyncratically brilliant."--Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times

"The Black Swan replaced my view of ways the area works."--Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate

"[Taleb writes] in a method that owes as a lot to Stephen Colbert because it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him during the follies of affirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy."--The Wall highway Journal

"Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . effortless to dip into."--Financial Times

"Engaging . . . The Black Swan has beautiful cheek and admirable ambition."--The big apple instances booklet Review

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Additional resources for The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2nd Edition) (Incerto, Book 2)

Example text

Second, a tempting strategy is to check for outliers and use means if none are found, but this can lead to serious practical problems for reasons described in Chapter 5. 6. A SUMMARY OF KEY POINTS 45 Third, if we were to repeat our computer experiment by sampling observations from a symmetric, heavy-tailed probability curve, it would appear that the central limit theorem performs well with means using only 20 observations to compute each mean. There are, however, serious concerns that are discussed in Chapter 7.

As is evident, the plots of the medians do not resemble a normal curve, even when increasing the sample size from 30 to 100. The lower panels are the same as the upper panels, only means are used instead. In contrast to the median, the plots of the means have, approximately, a normal curve. on a sample size of 100. Despite increasing the sample size, again the plot does not resemble a normal distribution. Indeed, now only three values for the sample median occur. 44 CHAPTER 3. 13. 14 shows a plot of 4,000 sample means generated in this manner.

The median achieves the highest possible breakdown point as opposed to the sample mean, which has the lowest breakdown point. For some purposes, the breakdown point turns out to be of paramount importance, but for other goals, the criterion of having a high breakdown point must be tempered by other considerations to be covered. 4 A WEIGHTED MEAN There is a generalization of the sample mean that turns out to be important for some purposes. It is called a weighted mean and simply refers to multiplying (or weighting) each of the observations by some constant and adding the results.

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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2nd Edition) (Incerto, Book 2) by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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