By Jamie Rogers (auth.)
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Additional resources for Strategy, Value and Risk — The Real Options Approach: Reconciling innovation, strategy and value management
4,272,392 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 57 300 Nov 16 T H R E E S T R AT E G I C D C F C A S E S T U D I E S 25 ■ The start-up cost is $5,000 per start-up. 50%. The maturity for each discount factor is the middle of each month ■ The NPV of SPS is the sum of the present values of the net cash ﬂows for each month. 1 New drug development The development of a new drug is risky business. Of the virtually inﬁnite number of molecular compounds that may have pharmacological effects, drug companies must choose carefully the compounds in which to invest the millions of development dollars required before launching a new product on the market.
While game theory has provided insights and background into competitive situations, it has however been less effective in forecasting outcomes and in strategic planning. Game theory relies on constructs based on assumptions that can use few external variables, and can have problems in establishing whether an organization 42 S T R AT E G Y, VA L U E A N D R I S K – T H E R E A L O P T I O N S A P P R O A C H should compete or cooperate, the sequences of competitive moves, and the role of threats, assurances and commitments.
These include the role of resources and capabilities, the dynamic analysis of industry and competition, and real options analysis. Seeking sustainable competitive advantage by deﬁning the organization in terms of matching resources and capabilities, or competences, focuses on an organization’s internal environment. The economic disciplines of Schumpeterian analysis and game theory focus on the instability of industry boundaries and the competitive environment. Real options analysis provides a framework that links value to risk and uncertainty, and a metric for managing ﬂexibility and long-term strategic opportunities.
Strategy, Value and Risk — The Real Options Approach: Reconciling innovation, strategy and value management by Jamie Rogers (auth.)