By Jeffrey M. Stonecash
Incumbents within the U.S. condominium of Representatives have possibly elevated their vote possibilities in contemporary many years, elevating questions about the efficacy of elections in making participants responsive. The facts, in spite of the fact that, shows there was no development within the electoral fortunes of incumbents within the final 50 years. simply Republicans have more advantageous their electoral fortunes because of realignment. This useful booklet presents a truly diverse interpretation of ways incumbents have fared in fresh a long time, and the translation is supported through non-technical facts research and presentation.
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17 The Ns here refer to the number of elections involved. A case is an election year and involves the independent variables of the initial percentage an incumbent received and the year of a legislator’s career. The dependent variable is the vote percentage of a legislator in that year. If a legislator serves 10 years, the initial election is coded as zero for the year, and the fifth election is coded as 10 for the number of years in office. The analysis includes all members of the House elected in 1900 or after.
Given Gelman and King’s (1990) conclusion, some commentary on their analysis is necessary. Their approach, while seemingly logical and plausible, has some serious limitations. While dissecting their analysis is technical in nature, it is important to do so because their approach is cited as having generated a definitive assessment of the incumbency advantage. Appendix A presents a detailed critique of their approach and is presented for readers with some background in multiple regression. Only a summary will be presented here.
That percentage is very similar to the results for 1900–2006. Perhaps the most interesting finding that Erikson presents is that those members with a more recent entry into the House are more likely to exit via defeat. 6 percent; 1953, 47 percent (Erikson, 1976: 629). While a consensus was developing that incumbents were safer, his evidence indicated that they were less safe. 3 percent of members lost via a primary. asp). ” The former refers to cases in which the party did not renominate the incumbent as its candidate.
Reassessing the Incumbency Effect by Jeffrey M. Stonecash