By James H Fowler
Such a lot learn on two-party elections has thought of the end result as a unmarried, dichotomous occasion: both one or the opposite occasion wins. during this groundbreaking e-book, James Fowler and Oleg Smirnov examine no longer simply who wins, yet via how a lot, they usually marshal compelling facts that mandates-in the shape of margin of victory-matter. utilizing theoretical types, desktop simulation, rigorously designed experiments, and empirical info, the authors exhibit that once an election the coverage positions of either events movement within the course hottest by means of the profitable party-and they stream much more if the victory is big. furthermore, Fowler and Smirnov not just exhibit that the divergence among the coverage positions of the events is maximum while the former election used to be shut, but in addition that coverage positions are extra inspired via electoral volatility and ideological polarization.
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Extra info for Mandates, Parties, and Voters: How Elections Shape the Future (Social Logic of Politics)
Symmetrically, candidates from the party that lost the previous election are now more likely to lose the general election because the median voter has shifted away from them. If they think the party will support a candidate who is more electable, then moderate candidates are more likely, and extreme candidates are less likely, to vie for and win nomination. Thus, relaxing the assumption of parties as unitary actors still yields the same result. Candidates from the party that won the previous election will tend to become more extreme, whereas candidates from the losing party will tend to become more moderate.
5. The left figure shows how uncertainty about prior beliefs affects platforms after the right party wins a close election, whereas the right figure shows the effect after it wins in a landslide. Regardless of the margin of victory, increasing uncertainty (decreasing confidence) in prior beliefs causes the right party to propose a platform closer to its own ideal point. The effect on the left party depends on the margin of victory. When the left loses in a landslide, increasing uncertainty causes the left to shift toward the right.
The impact of electoral volatility is well known (Roemer 2001). More volatile elections yield greater uncertainty about the location of the median voter causing both parties to offer more extreme platforms. Our model reproduces this result with one exception. A party that wins the previous election in a landslide will actually offer a more moderate platform as electoral volatility increases because the greater uncertainty decreases the credibility of claiming a mandate. The second kind of uncertainty, confidence in prior beliefs, has not been studied previously but we show it also has an important impact on equilibrium platforms.
Mandates, Parties, and Voters: How Elections Shape the Future (Social Logic of Politics) by James H Fowler