Get Elections and Exit Polling PDF

By Fritz J. Scheuren, Wendy Alvey

ISBN-10: 0470291168

ISBN-13: 9780470291160

An figuring out of the connection among the product and the method in election polling is usually misplaced. This edited quantity unites principles and researchers, with caliber taking part in the valuable position. —J. Michael Brick, PhD, Director of the Survey equipment Unit, Westat, Inc.

Elections and go out Polling is a really precise exam of the really expert surveys which are at the moment used to trace and gather facts on elections and voter personal tastes. using sleek examine from the previous decade and a chain of interviews with famed American pollster Warren Mitofsky (1934-2006), this quantity offers a proper and groundbreaking examine the foremost statistical innovations and survey tools for measuring voter personal tastes all over the world.

Drawing at the most modern stories on pre-election and go out polling, this ebook outlines advancements that experience built in recent times and the result of their implementation. insurance starts off with an advent to go out polling and a simple assessment of its heritage, constitution, boundaries, and functions. next chapters specialize in using go out polling within the usa election cycles from 2000–2006 and the issues that have been encountered by way of either pollsters and the typical voter, reminiscent of how you can validate legitimate vote count number, confidentiality, new vote casting tools, and carrying on with facts caliber matters. The textual content is going directly to discover the presence of those matters in overseas politics, with examples and case stories of elections from Europe, Asia, and the center East. eventually, seeking to the impending 2008 U.S. presidential election, the dialogue concludes with predictions and proposals on the best way to assemble extra actual and well timed polling information.

examine papers from over fifty eminent practitioners within the fields of political technological know-how and survey tools are provided along excerpts from the editors' personal interviews with Mitofsky. The editors additionally comprise their very own reflections all through and finish each one bankruptcy with a precis Observations part that highlights extraordinary techniques and traits. The appendix positive aspects pattern questionnaires from real go out polling eventualities and an in depth bibliography directs the reader to extra references for additional research.

Combining knowledge from probably the most amazing names within the box in addition to findings from smooth learn and insightful techniques for destiny practices, Elections and go out Polling is a wonderful complement for political technological know-how and survey examine classes on the upper-undergraduate and graduate degrees. it's also a specific reference for pollsters, survey researchers, statisticians, and a person with a basic curiosity within the equipment at the back of worldwide elections and go out polling.

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In some other countries, the impetus for exit polling was actually to reassure the public of a fair election-see, for example, Bautista et al. (2005) and Bautista et al. l 2 More recently, in the 2008 primary in New Hampshire, the fact that polling results failed to predict Hillary Clinton as the winner led to extensive review of the data and a host of explanations for the discrepancies which occurred, ranging from machine fraud to failure to account for likely voters. 7 SOME MAJOR LIMITATIONS Like all survey research, pre-election polls and exit polling are subject to a number of major limitations.

For Gore, there was an equivalent increase around the time of the Democratic convention, with an earlier spike due to favorable publicity surrounding his choice of Joe Lieberman for vice-president. After both conventions there was a relatively quiescent period with the Olympic games holding the media’s attention. Afterwards, campaign coverage increased, with a focus being the televised debates in October. 5 Constants and fit for predictions of the time trend of pre-election candidate preference polls using valence explanatory variables Persistence constants k are presented as values relative to the value for Pro-Bush for the 5 constant model and to OtherPro-Bush for the 9 constant model.

We developed two primary databases for the ballot-level information. One database contains the coded information for every Chad or candidate space on every ballot across 67 counties. This file does not attempt to reconcile candidate information across ballots, it simply reflects the reality of the disparate ballot designs used throughout the state of Florida. S. Senate candidate. ) Characteristics ofFlorida Coders. Overall, 153 coders worked on the project. Once hired, each coder completed a short demographic questionnaire.

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Elections and Exit Polling by Fritz J. Scheuren, Wendy Alvey

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